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Initially, Trump seemed to take a firm approach concerning Ukraine. After issuing warnings of "significant consequences" during the summer should Putin persisted blocking ceasefire discussions, he finally introduced considerable restrictions on Russia's primary oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision substantially hindered the Russian leader's capability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, through his latest comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, which was created by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukraine's or European input, Trump has apparently reverted to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's initiative would essentially favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democracy in peril. Despite ringing declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal effectively undermine that very autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his corporate experience, the former president continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, like handing Putin a portion of Ukrainian land will appease the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not simply about controlling a damaged swath of deindustrialized land in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent goal to eliminate it so it stops serves as an enticing model for the Russia's population of the democratic government that his deepening autocracy prevents them.

Border Concessions

Although maintaining in place the currently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been unable to capture in more than a decade of warfare, this surrender would make Ukrainian military defenses critically compromised.

Donetsk is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a critical barrier to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, providing Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital in case he eventually opt to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a action that would facilitate renewed conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would force the nation to reduce the scale of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's initiative imposes no such constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's legitimate administration as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Every extremist belief system and actions must be condemned and banned." Apparently to underscore this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump places no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by allowing votes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the plan includes Russia commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent accords in the history – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a restoration of captured land in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone have confidence in this commitment now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "immediate joint armed reaction" should the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details vary from unclear to alarming. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Russia from replenishing his weakened forces, restocking, and attacking again.

International Concern

A separate parallel deal apparently would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "significant, planned, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. Yet unlike a powerful national defense – the nation's primary protection against future invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to respond with force to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not