A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
